アメリカ民主主義さんの おぼえた日記 - 2020年8月1日(土)

＜BBCニュース8月1日＞
Belarus: The mother challenging an authoritarian president
ベラルーシ　一人の母が権威主義の大統領に挑む


◎要旨
ベラルーシの大統領選挙で26年間権力の座についているルカシェンコ氏に37歳の2児の母で身の安全のため子供を海外に避難させたティカノスカヤさんが挑む。彼女の陣営は記録的な数の民衆を選挙活動で動員している。彼女は現政権の退陣と、政治犯の釈放を公約としている。
国民は経済的に貧しいままであり、コロナ対応にも消極的なルカシェンコ氏に不満を募らせているが、彼は秩序維持を訴え、過去の選挙では圧勝してきた。そして、公式の世論調査では今での70％の支持を集める。
前回までとは状況が違うが、8月9日の選挙日に向けて当局の弾圧が厳しくなると反対派の陣営では警戒を強める。
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya would prefer to be frying cutlets than running for president of Belarus.

At least, that's what the stay-at-home mum laughingly told a crowd of supporters at a recent campaign rally.

But she also told them this election bid to challenge Alexander Lukashenko's 26-year-long grip on power was a "mission" she could not refuse.

The political novice only stepped in as a candidate for president when her husband was arrested and blocked from registering. A second serious rival to Mr Lukashenko has also wound up in prison and a third has fled the country.

So Ms Tikhanovskaya, 37, who had to send her two children abroad for safety reasons, has become the surprise face of change in Belarus.

She's joined forces with Veronika Tsepkalo, the wife of one would-be candidate, and Maria Kolesnikova, campaign manager for another,

And the three women have been drawing record crowds to rallies across the country.

"They are not Margaret Thatcher, the type of ladies who are in politics all their lives, but they are very sincere," is how Valery Tsepkalo explained the trio's unique appeal, in an interview in Moscow.

A former ambassador to the US, Mr Tsepkalo's own attempt to register for the presidential race was rejected.

He told the BBC he had to leave Belarus after getting information "from several sources" that his arrest was imminent.

"In previous election campaigns, Lukashenko had public support. But this time it's vanished and that's why he is so nervous," Mr Tsepkalo argues.

The shift in mood was captured by Ms Tikhanovskaya's husband, Sergei, in a popular video blog. For months, he toured Belarus interviewing people from farmers to pensioners.

Remarkably outspoken, they complained of pervasive corruption and poverty, a lack of opportunity and poor pay.

"I was two when the cockroach came to power," a man called Vladimir told Mr Tikhanovsky in one video, using the blogger's nickname for the Belarusian president. "My child is two now, and I just want something to change."

"We are here to put an end to the dictatorship," another man said.

That pent-up frustration became public when Belarusians began signing up in support of opposition candidates planning to register for the 9 August elections. When they were barred, crowds flooded the streets in anger.

The human rights group Viasna says more than 1,000 peaceful protesters were detained this summer alone, almost 200 of them spending up to 15 days in custody.

"It's a reaction to the unprecedented level of public engagement, the spread of protests and opposition to the president," Minsk-based political analyst Artyom Shraibman explains the authorities' tough response.

He argues that a significant dip in support for Mr Lukashenko - even in traditional, rural strongholds - has been fed by a "grim" decade of economic stagnation topped off with anger at the president's dismissive response to the Covid-19 crisis.

"You had this perfect storm of factors that were against Lukashenko in this election campaign," Mr Shraibman says.

★語句
novice　　初心者
imminent　（危険などが）切迫した
pent-up　うっ積した
dismissive　軽蔑的な
burly　体が大きく頑丈な
mercenary 外国人傭兵
poll　世論調査

◎私見
今日のBSテレ東のニュースの疑問のテーマは米中対決で、不審な人物の国外追放ではなく、総領事館の閉鎖を求めたことやポンペイオ国務長官の発言から、対立の激化ぶりがよくわかった。また、中国が10月に開催予定の5中総会を10月に開催したことにも注目すべきとのことだ。これは第１４次５カ年計画（２０２１～２５年）と、３５年を目途とした長期目標を主要議題として明示されているが、日本の開戦前の会議を引き合いに、会議開催で極端な方針が決まるリスクが高いと指摘していた。
コメンテータの一人として自民党の松川るい氏が出演しており、尖閣諸島は一度実効支配を許せば奪回できないので、しっかり守っていることを誇示すべきと主張していた。彼女の言うように、日本はアメリカとの安保条約を防衛の基本としつつも、中国と日本の地理的な距離は不変なので、親日派なども利用して一定の関係を作るべきなのだろう。
ただ、コロナ対応についての彼女の発言には異論がある。コロナの特別措置法は改正すべきという主張は同感であるが、国会を開くと官僚が国会対応に忙殺されて改正準備がすすまないというのだ。そもそも、現在のシンゾー内閣には、北村地方創生大臣のように、議員の質問に対応できず、答弁まで官僚まかせにする人がいるから、官僚の仕事が増えるのだ。
責任は公務員に押し付けるシンゾー政権のウイルスが、松川氏のように有能な議員にまで汚染されているのは残念だ。